Before reading my take, go over to ESPN.com to read Jerry Crasnick's original piece
That will save me from having to quote directly!

Greetings faithful readers, Jays fans and baseball readers.  It seems woefully apparent that our man JP Riccardi is far too cash conscious to dip into any big free agent pools (even with the likes of Manny Ramirez expressing interest in the Great White North).  How do we solve this problem? Trade? Good luck getting much from our underperforming offense, and we need our arms if we're going to compete post Burnett.

Solutions? Cheap free agents! Today I'll reflect on three positions that the Jays need: pitcher, shortstop and power bat (any position) as they are represented in Crasnick's article. 

Pitcher:
Regrettably Randy Johnson is not an option for the Jays.  Despite his age and injury issues he managed to pitch in 30 games last season for 184 innings.  A similar output in 2009 would make him an appealing option for the Jays who will need someone to eat up innings.  What's more is that Johnson would bring fans to the ballpark.  Regrettably Johnson's salary will likely be too high, even for JP who loves to focus on pitchers (In JP's defense the rumoured trade of Lincecum for Rios of last offseason now looks like it would have been a gem!).  On the other hand it is unlikely that Johnson would leave the West Coast.

Shortstop:
With the defensively sound John MacDonald already playing the role of loveable middle infielder with almost no bat, there is little interest for a talent like the rapidly aging Omar Vizquel.  'Nuff said.

1B/Power Bat:
Why oh why am I warming to the idea of going after Giambi?  Despite what the fickle Riccardi has said, I would like to think that there's still some chance that we'll go after Giambi this year.  Dave, that would produce a logjam at 1B/DH with Lind, Overbay and Giambi splitting time!  No, it wouldn't.  Picking up Giambi would give us a solid option at DH from a guy who had an excellent OPS in 2008 and may benefit from the less intense Toronto market.  That would allow us to trade Adam Lind for pitching - Lind's value, as I have stated, will never be this high again.  Slot Snyder in left and let Overbay try to prove himself - trading Overbay right now would be futile as his value is so low. 

What the fans need to do:
Let JP know you'll support his team if he puts one together.  Increase his ticket sales if he brings in a good player.  I, personally, am promising to support the team by purchasing the jersey of any big/valuable free agent that JP brings in that makes sense.  I urge others to do the same!

It took me seventeen years to get
three thousand hits in baseball. I did it
in one afternoon on the golf course.
Hank Aaron

In lieu of the last few (relatively boring) days of baseball news, I'll rely on quick hits to keep things fresh.

The most recent ploy conjured by JP Riccardi to bring back AJ Burnett has been to promise him more years, albeit at a lower price.  This ensures that AJ has a job in Major League Baseball until he is well into the twilight of his career making a respectively high salary. 

I ask you, faithful readers, why?  I sure sign of the trouble ahead came to me yesterday morning.  The folks on TSN, our local sports network, commented that the Jays' expected relative inactivity in the offseason would lead to another dissappointing season.  When the mainstream media is making such claims, you know that the panic has passed beyond the speculative blogsphere and into the public's conscious. 

To be fair to JP, before I go any further, let's review his situation.  JP is saddled with the difficult task of managing a financial system where all our your salaries/expenses are in American funds but your revenues are in Canadian funds.  With the dollar trading in Canada at .80 US the Jays stand to suffer somewhat (although not as bad as in the past). 

JP also toils in the impossibly competitve and expensive AL East where the Yankees and Red Sox are bound to outclass the Jays and Orioles every year in spending. 

JP has also received poor returns on most of the big free agent signings that he has made, being bitten by the injury bug one too many times.

On the converse.  JP has been given a payroll of around 100 million dollars to deal with - a respectable sum even in today's market.

JP has also had the benefit of good returns on some of the players he's drafted (Hill, Marcum, McGowan, et all)

JP has ALSO been given an inordinate amount of time to construct a winning team and has not produced a squad who has faired any better than second place in the division.  They Jays are literally no further ahead than they were when JP got here.

All common knowledge - what's the point Byrne?

If JP can't compete with the big guns in the AL East, which is obvious, and is gunshy about chasing any other free agents outside of Burnett this offseason - a fact that he has alluded to on a number of occasions - then there is no point in signing Burnett to a five year contract just to watch the Jays finish a couple of games over .500 every season and in third place in the East.  What is more is that Burnett is absolutely untradeable if he's having a bad season or two with three or four years left on a contract.

Let's trade Halladay instead.  I know, bloggers have come out against this idea a number of times.  Even I would hate to see Halladay go.  But let's compare him with Toronto hockey star Mats Sundin.  Leafs' GM Cliff Fletcher begged Sundin to waive his no trade clause so that the Leafs could send Sundin to a playoff bound team in exchange for some excellent young players/draft picks.  If Sundin had cared as much about the Leafs as he claimed he did he would have allowed a trade to happen, gone and played in the playoff and then returned to the Leafs in the offseason to help develop the youth movement.

Instead he hasn't played yet this season, the Leafs missed the playoffs, and they likely will again this year. 

Picture this - Halladay starts the year as a Jay.  He plays his heart out, just as he always does, until the trade deadline.  JP trades him for a number of prospects from a team who is making a play for the post season (Oakland, with whom JP has an almost too comfortable relationship with, may be this team), and the rebuilding era begins!

In a perfect world JP will be fired and a new GM steps in to oversee this phase.  However, if the prospects turn out then JP's legacy is increased monumentally - he becomes the former GM who made a trip to the playoffs possible by making an unpopular but wise decision. 

You want Roy back? Sign him to a contract when he hits free agency, his contract will be up soon.

That's my sollution, folks.  Feel free to tear it apart.

No matter how good I feel I got to take that extra day. It's been mentioned to me and I know for a fact that I'm needed down the road as opposed to now so however long it takes.

With little else to entertain topically on the Toronto front when baseball is considered here is another post that deals primarily with notoriously fragile Mr. Burnett.  The Hot Stove on Toronto's beleaguered pitcher could not be brighter with at least four teams (New York, Boston, Baltimore and Toronto) showing significant interest and some others (Atlanta, for instance) claiming that they have at least some vested interest in AJ.  Ken Rosenthal recently broke down the financial aspects of the potential deal.  I am going to look at what team, from a mostly intangible prospective, would be the best fit for AJ.

New York:
AJ should avoid the Bronx Bombers at all cost.  Burnett, once comfortable, may fall victim to his usual tendencies to take vacations on the DL and to sit out games for menial aches and pains.  You think Pavano had it bad? At least he didn't play long enough to feel the wrath of Yankees' faithful.  With Steinbrenner and fellow players breathing down your neck to do your share and the media in New York eating you up, enjoy the fan reaction when you return from a stint on the DL for a fingernail issue.  Don't get me wrong.  I was in New York for the first time in my life this past May.  I was instantly sold on why it is considered one of the world's great cities.  The fusion of culture, art, sports and some of the most diverse and wonderful people I've ever encountered was intoxicating.  Just don't go there if you're a high paid player with injury issues.  The endless coverage by the YES Network, the invasive prodding by the newpapers and the stress of performing on baseball's biggest stage in a new ballpark no less will be too much for Burnett, a player who is not known for stepping up to the challenge when he is pressed to do so.

Boston:
Not as bad as New York, Boston ranks very highly amongst American cities where media coverage and baseball is concerned.  Boston may be able to secure Burnett by offering him an extra year on his contract, argues Rosenthal.  On the other hand can Burnett secure himself a spot amongst the Red Sox great? Doubtful.  Boston loves their team more than it loves their players, just ask Ted Williams.  Some players, Varitek and Ortiz come to mind, are much celebrated in Beantown.  How'd they get there? Through dedication and the ability to grind through injuries.  Forget it Burnett, your psyche can't handle Boston either.     

Baltimore:
For what?  Burnett would gain nothing by playing for this sagging American League East team outside of a lucrative contract and poor run support.  A mixture of Angelos and Burnett seems volitaile. 

Toronto:
Here we go, another 'anybody but Burnett rant'.  Not so, true believers. Despite the fact that I think Burnett is overvalued, the best decision for AJ's camp is to return to Toronto.  After testing free agency Burnett should realize, like Ryan Dempster recently did, that there is no place quite like home.  Burnett has good relationships with players, coaches and strangely the fans in Toronto who inexplicably want to see Mr. Consistency return.  Rosenthal commented that both sides have denied rumours of a 4 year/54 million dollar contract.  Could that mean more money? An extra year? An annoying club option such as existed in his previous contract? Who knows!  Burnett, you've already scratched out your niche with the forgiving Toronto community.  Return, brother, and reclaim your seat as the beloved antihero in the world's most multicultural city. (This is a saying I've heard, but not one that I have statistics to support, so please don't email me arguing the line).

DB

I always tried to do the best. I knew I couldn't always be the best, but I tried to be. Frank Robinson

I was over at bluejays.com today, reading this week's edition of the mailbag.
In one letter Mark B. from wonderful Aurora, Ontario asked what Jordan Bastian thought the Blue Jays' 2009 rotation would look like.  Recapping the situation Bastian reminded the reader, and by extension all of us, that the Blue Jays will not be able to match the length or the monetary value of the deals that Burnett will be receiving and as a result the Jays will have two returning starters from 2008 on opening day 2009. (McGowan will return some time before the All Star Break, hopefully as early as May). 

After briefly discussing the free agents available, assuming that Burnett will not come back to Toronto on a goodwill basis, Bastian added that Toronto may put together out of available options from within the club. 

Assuming that Roy Halladay is the only reliable starters, with McGowan hurt and Litsch not yet a proven commodity, is anyone in Toronto willing to accept a rotation that is made up of a combination of Scott Downs, David Purcey, Brad Mills, Casey Janssen, Scott Richmond, Brett Cecil, Ricky Romero or David Romero?  Scott Downs is a good reliever with mild success as a starter.  David Purcey was acceptable in his role as a spot starter last year.  I'm personally excited to see a return on Ricky Romero, the must own prospect that we chose over Troy Tulowitzky.  I am also excited to see what Janssen can do. 

All things considered, however, we are giving up on 2009 if our pitching staff is Roy & Co. with the & Co. section being a bunch of unproven side projects.  Frank Robinson always tried to do his best, but the Jays will be doing less than their best without going after pitchers with at least the record of guys like Brad Penny.  Give fans a reason to come to the ballpark in 2009, Ted.  We'll respond, like we always have when we're competitve, by supporting the team.  We may be fair weathered fans here in Toronto, but at least we will support a team that is worth supporting.  There will be no empty seats in the playoffs, if we ever see them again.

 

The world is much abuzz with the onset of the true Free Agent season, and there are many rumours concerning the Jays that we should address.  Let's break it down situation by situation, player by player.

Big Bat:

Manny Ramirez:
Jordan Bastian says it best.  The Jays probably cannot afford Manny. I'm not too sad to see him go, but I wouldn't have been sad to see him here, either. What other options are there?

Jason Giambi:
In his seven years in New York Giambi enjoyed five productive years, including three of the last four, and two not so productive years.  On top of that he weathered the storms of steroid abuse, and brought back the mustache to New York, reminding Yankee fans of greats like Reggie Jackson.  At age 37, however, Giambi has the best years of his career behind him.  Jays, expect Frank Thomas like production from JG if you tender him a contract. 

Milton Bradley:
Forget about it.  You can keep the funnest player in the game's league leading OPS, Canada doesn't want the headache.  Even with Cito, a much more calm and level headed manager than John Gibbons was, notable jerks don't fair well in Toronto.  Not only is Bradley a pain in the neck, he also has avoided providing his teams with the breakout season that scouts once envisioned.  It's fun getting into trouble, but I'll have to say sorry to Milton.

Raul Ibanez:
I'm not always negative!  I think Ibanez would be a great fit in Toronto.  Ibanez is aging quite well, is a premier offensive player in a number of offensive categories, would give us room to trade the likes of Adam Lind (his value will never be as high as it is now), and would probably welcome the chance to spend time at DH.  We tried once to get him and failed.  What about another go?

Bobby Abreu:
Not quite the unheralded marvel for fantasy owners that he once was, Abreu is a great player and would be a great addition under certain circumstances.  Let's be honest, with how low his HR totals have been over the last few years, his high rbi totals are mostly due to the lineup in which he plays.  On the other hand an outfield of Wells, Rios and Abreu would be tremendous, considering one is willing to play LF.  What does that mean for Lind and Snyder?  One, if not both of them would have to go.  Abreu is too athletic to DH, Snyder is probably too young, and Lind doesn't hit well enough.  Abreu may cause more problems than he solves. 

Shortstop

Rafeal Furcal:
I've already made the case for Raf a week or so ago.  Great pickup if we can get him.  Picking up Raf, Ibanez and a good pitcher would make Toronto a real contender I believe. 

Khalil Greene:
WARNING!!! FLUKE YEAR IN 2007!!! Since 2004 he's only had one season where he's played more than 121 games.  2007 was a fluke because of injury woes, not because of talent (of which Khalil has plenty).  If you pick this cat up, JP, get ready to give up your job the second he's injured.  Let Burnett and Glaus teach you that.

Premium Arm

Burnett:
Some of the best reading I've done today was over at the hotstove blog where I noticed AJ's agent had expressed interest in Atlanta and that Atlanta had given up hope, at least somewhat, in acquiring Peavy.  Go AJ.  Go far.  Go so far that we don't even have to tolerate you in anything more than the odd interleague matchup. 

Dempster:
It is tempting to think of the chance of having another Canadian on the team.  I miss Stairs.  Dempster is positionally versataile, his injury plagued seasons are three years behind him and he's coming off a successful transition back into a starter.  Finishing sixth in the crowded NL Cy Young race Dempster had an era below 3 and just over 1.2 WHIP.  Solid.

Ben Sheets:
Next.

Just kidding - I'll explain myself.  I wasn't always allergic to injuries.  But the Jays 2006-2008 seasons have me so scared I won't even go for a checkup at the doctor.  Great talent here but his injury track record is awful.  Let someone else waste their money.

Brad Penny: 
Hmmm, didn't know he was an option.  His under-the-radar status, due to his recent injury troubles, may make him affordable.  Unlike Sheets he has pitched a couple of full seasons recently and looked very good for the offensively anemic Dodgers in 2007.  Worth a shot!

There you have it, what do you think? 


 

"They both (statistics & bikinis) show a lot, but not everything." - Infielder Toby Harrah

Lee and Halladay

I want to make myself perfectly clear.  Its been obvious since just after the All Star Break that Cliff Lee was bound to win the AL Cy Young.  His spectacular comback from relative obscurity in 2007 combined with his league leading era and wins total made him an excellent, if not unbeatable, candidate.  Roy Halladay, receiving roughly half of the number of votes that Lee received (132-74), should have been much less of an afterthought.

I have a bias towards Halladay, obviously, since I live just outside of Toronto and I watch him season after season pitch at a high level despite his often less than stellar run support.  Regardless, however, of my opening quote I will now turn to a few statistics to support my case for Halladay.    He was second in the league in ERA, tied for second in wins and third in strikeouts (a career high).  But wait, there's more, much more.  He led the league in complete games, WHIP, shutouts, batters faced and SO to BB ratio.  Halladay finished second or close to Lee in the categories Lee dominated, Lee similarly paced Halladay in all but strikeouts and batters faced.

What does this come down to? The loss column.  Lee lost just 3 to Halladay's 11.  What gives? Look at some of those losses! Halladay threw a complete game loss, a number of late inning losses and suffered some of the worst run support this side of Kansas City.  I am not blaming those who voted in Lee for the Cy Young.  Did the Blue Jays offense lose Halladay a trophy.  Yes.

Halladay was the best pitcher in ball in 2008.  Elias Sports Bureau agrees.  What makes the difference is that when the game was on the line, the Jays bats could not deliver for their wonderfully faithful ace.  Think of that, JP, when you're shopping this winter. 

DB

Reflecting on a recent discussion I had with the Statistician Magician concerning whether the Jays would be better off signing A.J. Burnett or Derek Lowe, I stumbled on this article over at ESPN.com  - Scroll down, you'll see the pertinent section.

I was never comfortable with the large contracts JP Riccardi offered to the likes of Burnett, Troy Glaus or BJ Ryan just a few years ago.  Burnett especially worried me; a fire baller with a tendency towards injury.

What did we get from AJ? One year as a good number two starter behind the wizard like Roy Halladay and two injury plagued years in which AJ's committment to baseball was questioned by everyone in Toronto including the GM.

Based on his production from last year, however, many experts are citing the relationships that AJ has built as reason for Burnett to be seeking a return to Toronto.  I'm going for Lowe in 2009 (with the infactual assumption that Toronto will get one or the other) for three main reasons.

Sinkerball/Groundball:
Lowe does not need to rely on the heat to get batters out.  In nights where AJ's fastball is lacking a little or his big, hooking curve isn't hitting its spots AJ becomes susceptible to the homerun.  On the other hand Lowe is a sinkerballer with a tremendous ground ball to fly ball ratio of 2.60.  With Toronto's consistently excellent defense you can expect Lowe to be the perfect fit in Toronto as long as Lowe is given run support.  At a 5 million dollar discount (I argue) over Burnett how could you say no?

Relief Experience:
Lowe has closed before and may close again.  Think of an aging Lowe vs. an aging Burnett.  Burnett is likely to break down at a younger age than Lowe will, due to the way they pitch, making the age difference argument void.  So at the end of a four year contract I'd rather see the well preserved, experience reliever coming out of the pen as opposed to a Burnett whose confidence is shot due to a fastball that has lost its zing. 

Injury:
This case should be over right now.  Burnett has been injured in some way or another in nearly every season but 2008.  Lowe has never been on the DL.  Some may say that Lowe is due for a stint, all things considered, while I say that Burnett is likely to hit the DL four times in four years.  We simply cannot tolerate such inconsistency here in Toronto.

The OHL
On a totally unrealted note... Just yesterday I witnessed my first OHL game of the season.  For those of you in America who may not be familiar with the Ontario Hockey League, its where a large number of NHL players come from, making it the equivalent to College Football in terms of preparing players for the next level.

In this game the home town Oshawa Generals beat the visiting Barrie Colts by a score of 5-0.  What was most notable about this game was the slick goal tending of one Neil Conway who faced more shots than the opposing goalie but kept the Generals in the game via a series of excellent saves.  Watching this player I opined last night that with a glove hand as solid as Conway's, he may have missed his true calling as a slick fielding shortstop for his hometown Cleveland Indians.

Seriously, MLB scouts should check this guy out!

Before you read this post take a minute or two to review this article over at foxsports.com.

Finished yet? Good.

As this is a Blue Jays blog, I'd like to make some comments concerning what Dayn Perry sees in store for the Jays.  Dayn Perry calls the Jays the most underrated team from 2008.  Noted.  He then goes on to call the team a potential stealth contender.  Stealth contender? With a 100 million dollar budget?  Is that the best we can hope for? Oh, the pain of competing in the AL East. 

Enough lamentation, now on to the players.

A.J. Burnett: Is he worth it?  It's a toss up.  A contract tendered to AJ would likely need to be in the range of 4 years at 15-18 million dollars at this point.  IF he enjoys the kind of success that he enjoyed in 2008, then it would be a good deal.  If, however, he follows his career trend then the Jays figure to only get one to two good years of the next four.  That would make Burnett grossly overpriced.  I tend to think he'll find his way back to the DL one to two too many times to make him worth that kind of money.  Trading for a pitcher would cost us too much in the ways of prospects, as premium pitching is very hard to come by, so we may have to settle for a lesser talent at a reduced price. 

Raphael Furcal: The Blue Jays need an upgrade at short.  I do not think it is prudent to move Hill over to short in anything less than the most convenient situations (for example, getting Brian Roberts).  So we will need to lure a shortstop to Toronto.  Growing up watching a lot of TBS I have a soft spot for Furcal.  That being said, his last good season was 2006, he is coming off of an injury plagued campaign in which he hit very well in a small sample size of ABs and he is now over 30 years old, making him a liability as a speedster and as a shortstop. 

Mixed messages, Dave?

Absolutely.  I would support Furcal in a Jays uniform, but only under a few conditions.  We cannot offer him more than a 3-4 year contract (perhaps 3 with a team option?) and we'll need to keep Johnny Mac to back Furcal up when his defense becomes suspect.

Orlando Cabrera: The best move the 2004 Red Sox made was to add Cabrera for their playoff run.  Could he work for the Jays in 2009?  Sure!  Not only are his stats just a shade worse than Furcals in his last couple of seasons (as compared to Furcals last full season or two) but he would be substantially cheaper.  The issue with Cabrera is that he is quite old for a shortstop/leadoff man and I would advocated a contract length of no more than 2 years with a club/mutual option for a third. 

Snider/Big Splashes (Manny):  The Jays need to make the playoffs now. If not, rebuild.  Snider could fit into both.  A big splash such as Manny, however, fits into just one plan.  There are three ways the Jays could spend their money this year.  Bring back AJ and a cheap upgrade at short, bring in Manny and find a way to get a pitcher, or purchase a number of mediocre talent to fill positions.

We've tried the latter a number of times and my thoughts are known about Burnett.  Get sassy Toronto - let's bring us a pennant in 2009.

DB

 

"The only reason I don't like playing in the World Series is I can't watch myself play."
Reggie Jackson

As a primer for this article, and in a way to ensure that I do not come across as a plagiarist, I urge you to read this article over at foxsports.com.

Now, let's dissect it.

To make my position quite clear I would rather the World Series be played in the ballparks of the participating teams.  That being said, allow me to offer an antithesis.  The prime reason, I would argue, to play the World Series in a neutral ball ballpark that has a retractable roof is not the weather.  While the weather wreaked havoc on this year's Series, causing a number of very avoidable problems, weather is not often an unaddressable issue in October.  That being said, there is no doubt that the main impetus behind a neutral ball park in a city that does not already have a Major League team but can support such an event is purely financial.  Super Bowl Week is wonderfully marketable. 

Knowing the host city in advance, the marketing starts months before the teams are decided.  Grocery stores are adorned with large cardboard cutouts with the Superbowl's logo, countless festivals are planned and overall the sport of football benefits from the yearly boom in shared economic prosperity.  One can only imagine the mass exodus to Nashville as World Seriesers get ready to watch the League's championships. 

This is the point where I should discuss baseball's purity, the comfort of the players in their home parks, the right of the fan to watch as heroes are born, or as legends are cemented.  Aw heck, even my opening line insinuates that as my opinion.

And it is.

But I'll fight fire with fire.  The season ticket holders.  How many folks who own season tickets do so much because they look forward to having the right to buying playoff tickets?  While I do not have a set of statistics to back up my inference, I'm a blogger not an investigative reporter, I imagine the number is high.  It would be simply impossible to offer season ticket holders the right to purchase tickets for a World Series played across the country.  You would seriously run the risk of a half empty stadium as zealous fans run out of ideas as to how to get to Nashville, or Las Vegas. 

I implore you, Major League Baseball. Keep the Series how it is.  Don't fix what's not (aside from in 2008) broke. 

DB   

You don't save a pitcher for tomorrow.  Tomorrow it may rain.  ~Leo Durocher, in New York Times, 16 May 1965

Without a serious rebuilding phase in sight, one that may include the Jays' willingness to deal the likes of Roy Halladay or Vernon Wells for a slew of young prospects (a debate for another time) I am advocating the acquisition of someone to fill a role that has been, despite flashes of greatness from Wells and former Jay Troy Glaus, vacant since the days of Delgado: The imposing (often left-handed) power threat.

For a moment, let's forget the ridiculous musings in Toronto area newspapers about Barry Bonds last season.  He would have neither helped us in the short term nor furthered us as a club in the years to come.  Let us focus on the Hot Stove of November 5, 2008.

Shortlist of Players Available to Fill this Role:

Ken Griffey
Manny Ramierez
Mark Teixeira
Frank Thomas

Griffey: Oh what could have been!  I spent countless hours of my childhood with the Kid smashing homer after homer on my SNES.  Unfotunately, injuries have rendered the once mighty slugger a lesser player and accordingly he is not a serious option.  Let's hope not at least!

Ramierez: Sure, he's not a lefty at all.  Sure! He's 36 and will likely command upwards of 20 million dollars a season.  BUT if Manny can give us just a couple of those years that have made him one of the, if not the most, consistently productive batsmen in baseball he could seriously breath life into the Toronto franchise.  Picking up Manny would allow us to shed Lind before he is relegated to perenial second tier status and give the Jays the most productive offensive outfield in baseball. (Unless they move Manny to DH)  What's more would be watching Manny face off against his former team, the Red Sox, as he launches ball after ball into the left field seats.   

Tex:  Not a bad option.  His salary will be huge but he would allow the Jays to move dead weight such as the fading Lyle Overbay.  Unfortunately nobody thinks that there's a chance that Tex would even consider a move this far north.

Thomas: Just kiddin'. 

I have a sneaking suspicion that Riccardi will use some of the capital freed by AJ's departure to bring in some help for the rotation.  In the wake of that kind of move, the Jays will either have to suffice with their current lineup or seek help via the trade.   Don't expect a playoff birth in Toronto, however, without some serious pop J.P.

In response to a recent Ken Rosenthal article I've been reflecting on a few issues.
Despite the recent hirings in Toronto, including Gillick era manager Cito Gaston and president and CEO Paul Beeston the Blue Jays will now add a second year to their 1993 World Series Champion opponent Phillies' 14 year playoff drought.  Sure, the Phillies play in the weaker National League, but I have been hard pressed to find reasons why the Blue Jays have been so long without a playoff birth in an era when the Rays, Twins and A's have all had significant playoff runs despite low payrolls and poor attendance.

I have, after much thought, settled on three hypothesis:

Middling: The Jays, after thoughts in the American League East, have done just enough to place in the middle of their division for a number of years.  Accordingly they have done just enough to blow their chances at excellent draft picks and have kept just enough high caliber players to stop us from entering total rebuilding phases.  Yes, I will at some point argue for why even fellows like Halladay and Wells are tradeable. 

Front Office Hirings: Gord Ash was a bust. Riccardi and the eight year plan are intolerable.  I can't wait to see what Godfrey's replacement can do.

Post-Gillick drought:  When a GM wagers so much on building a championship team in a small/middle market the aftermath can be troublesome.  After his stints in Toronto, Baltimore and Seattle Gillick left his teams with a lot of hope, a diminished farm system and a slew of soon-to-be unaffordable big name players.  I am not upset with Gillick, but he understands the cost of a champion, whether or not he sticks around for the residual effects.  

Kudos if you picked up the song reference - I've got a special place in my heart for the Talking Heads.

Greetings first time readers and long termed customers!  I caught wind of mlb.com's blogging interface and I've decided to bring Baseball and Relativity to you in a snazzy new way!!  Since last we met I've ventured to the Baseball Hall of Fame in lovely yet judicial Cooperstown New York (long story), the Jays turned in another promising/dissapointing second half effort and the Phillies broke their 28 year drought!! Ouch!

That being said - let's get topical.  Just recently the Jays added once highly touted Canadian pitching prodigy Adam Loewen.  Since being drafted by the Orioles in the first round of 2002 Loewen has pitched in 35 games over three years with a record of 8-8.  His combined ERA is above five runs and his WHIP is 1.640. 

Needles to say that this once exciting minor leaguer, now nearly 25 years of age, needs to have a breakout year in Toronto or he'll risk being a never-was.  What's Loewen's, a 6'5" power pitcher, biggest trouble? Control.  Take a look at his walks - http://www.baseball-reference.com/l/loewead01.shtml

As a result of his pitching woes Loewen intends to break into the league as an outfielder.  If he's at least as successful as Ankiel was in St. Louis he'll be a marginal major leaguer.

The Loewen move is just another in a string of mildly intelligent, low risk, boring moves by JP Riccardi.  Loewen was expected to wow us with his over powering stuff.  A string of small injuries and setbacks and he's primed to follow Brad Wilkerson, Kevin Mench, Shannon Stewart and a slew of other low risk-low reward OF's who have played roles in Toronto.  At least we don't blow huge amounts of money on these guysl; at most we will never compete without imposing bats and reliable every-day players.

Adam Loewen - one more jersey I'll never buy.  Sorry, Surrey.